According to foreign media reports, Amazon is expected to double its loans to sellers in 2023. However, due to the market depression in the past two years, sellers have increased pressure on repayment, and the repayment rate is expected to decline . Therefore, Amazon seller loan write-off procedures or will become more stringent.

According to internal documents obtained by Insider, Amazon's economists predict that outstanding loans to third-party sellers are expected to exceed $2 billion in 2023, an increase of more than 80% from $1.1 billion in the first quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2021. More than double that in 2010 , when its total outstanding loans hit $1 billion for the first time.

But Amazon plans to tighten its underwriting and credit management policies as it anticipates further macroeconomic headwinds through 2023, the filing said. Amazon expects a loss of 1.34% of its projected $2 billion outstanding loans this year.

The document stated that increased uncertainty about sellers' ability to repay in the future necessitated more examination of credit/loan products on Amazon's internal balance sheet.

The potential growth in loans marks a continued rebound in Amazon's lending business. Amazon’s invitation-only loan program for sellers, launched in 2011, was scaled back sharply during the 2020 pandemic, with total outstanding loan balances falling below $400 million by the end of 2020, company documents show.

Over the past two years, however , Amazon's lending business has re-accelerated. In 2022, Amazon's lending arm serves more than 1 million customers and sellers , generates $50 billion in aggregate transaction volume, and generates more than $1 billion in "economic profit."

It is understood that third-party sellers account for a large portion of Amazon's online marketplace. More than half of the products sold on Amazon now come from third-party sellers, and in the most recent quarter alone, Amazon collected more than $28 billion in fees from those sellers , an 18% increase from last year.

Does the increase in loans indicate that Amazon is cautiously optimistic about the economic outlook? Previously, economists at Amazon predicted a soft landing for the U.S. economy , with little chance of a recession in 2023.

An Amazon spokesman declined to comment on the details of the disclosed lending program, but said the company's leadership team disagreed with economists' forecasts.

At the same time, the document also identified three major macroeconomic headwinds in 2023: the possibility of continued interest rate hikes in the US and UK, uncertainty about "future business spending confidence," and increased risk of future loan defaults.

The survey by the market research company Numerator also pointed out that in 2023, American consumers will pay more attention to personal financial issues (53%), 57% of consumers will save money , and 43% of consumers will reduce overall spending .

Obviously, the consumer market in 2023 may continue to be sluggish , but what sellers care about is whether it will be more difficult than 2022?