Zhimeitong | International Highlights

For more information, pay attention to the public number: Zhimeitong Research Institute

01

North America

[Amazon releases new trends in North American consumption in 2022] Amazon officially released new trends in North American consumption in 2022. It is understood that there are 313 million Internet users in the United States, and 250 million users with online shopping experience. It is estimated that by 2025, the penetration rate of e-commerce in the United States is expected to reach 80%. In 2022, US e-commerce sales will exceed $1 trillion for the first time, and e-commerce sales are expected to increase by 77% in 2025 compared to 2021. In 2021, the average per capita Black Friday spending in the United States is nearly 3,000 yuan, and 47% of consumers say they will shop on Prime Day in 2022. At the same time, the consumer sentiment of Canadians and Mexicans continues to be high. In 2022, 12% of Mexican consumers are expected to spend 1,250+ RMB at the Hot Sale, and Canadians' consumer spending will continue to rise in 2022. Amazon said that while 2022 looks at inflation and savings targets, many consumers have cut back on shopping. But 53% of consumers say they still have the urge to buy when they get a deal, coupon or discount code.

[The U.S. housing market cools for the first time since 2021] The rise in U.S. home prices began to slow in April. Data released showed that the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 20.4% year-on-year in April, down from 20.6% the previous month. The managing director of S&P Dow Jones Indices noted that U.S. home price gains are showing tentative, but inconsistent, signs of deceleration. Mortgage rates have nearly doubled since the end of 2021. Rising interest rates and high home prices have made it unaffordable for would-be buyers, and the housing market in cities that have been popular amid the pandemic is also starting to slow. However, he noted that growth remained strong by historical standards. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 21.2% year-over-year, the largest gain on record. Tampa and Miami, Florida, and Phoenix saw the biggest gains. The slowdown in the housing market is having a knock-on effect across the industry. Mortgage lenders expect business to decline, with intermediaries including Compass Inc. and Redfin Corp. cutting staff.

Airbnb announces a permanent global ban on 'party' Airbnb has announced a permanent global ban on 'party', including openly invited parties. Two years ago, Airbnb put temporary restrictions on "party". Airbnb said in a blog post that the temporary ban has proven effective. Since the policy was implemented in August 2020, the reporting rate of "party" has dropped by 44% year-over-year.

[Tesla lays off hundreds of employees in its autopilot department in its latest layoffs] It is reported that Tesla has laid off hundreds of employees in the autopilot department of its California factory, which is the largest of Tesla's large-scale layoffs. The laid-off employees were notified of layoffs on the 28th local time, sources said. Teams in this factory office are responsible for evaluating customer vehicle data related to self-driving vehicle assistance features and for data tagging. The office has about 350 employees, and about 200 workers have been laid off, many of whom are data labelling experts. Earlier this month, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said layoffs were necessary in an increasingly volatile economic environment, with about 10% of salaried employees set to lose their jobs in the next three months, but a year later. The total number may be higher.

[Plus returns after 5 years, Apple may launch iPhone 14 Plus] Recently, Lanzuk , a reliable source close to the supply chain, reported that the iPhone 14 Plus is more likely to appear in the iPhone lineup this year. Apple hasn't used the word "Plus" on an iPhone since the iPhone 8 Plus five years ago. It is reported that in terms of configuration, the iPhone 14 Plus will continue to use the A15 processor and LTPS notch screen with a 60Hz refresh rate, dual cameras on the back, and the starting price of 128GB is expected to be 6,799 yuan. Although the hardware is far inferior to the iPhone 14 Pro Max, with the name of "Apple's cheapest 6.7-inch mobile phone" and the largest battery capacity in the whole series, it is expected to become Apple's best-selling model after the iPhone XR/11.

[The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points in July is 86.7%] According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch": the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points in July is 13.3%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 86.7%; to 9 The probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 and 75 basis points is 0%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 100 basis points is 9.1%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 125 basis points is 64%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 150 basis points is 26.9 %.

[Goldman Sachs: Brent crude oil may rise to $140 a barrel] Although oil prices have fallen for the first time since April this year for two consecutive weeks, Goldman Sachs is bullish on oil prices. Goldman Sachs chief commodities strategist Jeff Curry said Brent crude futures could rise as high as $140 a barrel this summer. He believes that the current lack of investment in the oil and gas sector will continue to drive oil prices higher. Earlier on June 7, Goldman Sachs released a report predicting that Brent crude oil prices will hit $140 a barrel. But since then, international oil prices have fallen for two consecutive weeks. Recently, Currie once again reiterated this expectation, and believes that the recent fall in oil prices is a buying opportunity.

02

EU region

[Germany’s restart of 10GW of coal power will reduce gas consumption for power generation by 62%] To further reduce exposure to Russian natural gas, Germany is turning to coal to reduce gas consumption in the power industry. The German government plans to restart 10GW of sequestered coal power capacity to strengthen energy security, which could reduce gas use for power generation by 62% over the next 12 months. However, a return to coal power could slow Germany's energy transition.

[France calls on oil-producing countries to increase oil production to curb soaring oil prices] French officials called on oil-producing countries to increase oil production on the 27th local time, and expressed hope that Iran and Venezuela would return to the international oil market to curb the soaring oil prices due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. oil prices. France said it was time to unite to overcome the crisis and that producers needed to increase oil production in "extraordinary ways", but said the environmental goal of carbon neutrality remained a priority and would not be affected by output. increased impact. According to French media reports, U.S. President Biden will visit Saudi Arabia in July to increase oil production. French President Emmanuel Macron also maintains close ties with leaders of Middle East oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia.

03

other areas

[Russian ruble exchange rate hits a new seven-year high] The exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the dollar and the euro continued to strengthen on the 28th, reaching the highest level in seven years. According to Moscow Stock Exchange data, as of the close on the 28th, the exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar was 51.8 to 1, the highest since May 2015; the exchange rate of the ruble to the euro was 54.55 to 1, the highest since April 2015. Russian investment expert Dmitry Babin said that the imbalance between foreign exchange supply and demand in the Russian market still exists, thereby contributing to the systemic strengthening of the ruble. Analysis believes that the exchange rate of the ruble against the US dollar may reach 50 to 1 next week, and the exchange rate against the euro may reach 52 to 1. It is difficult to predict when the ruble will fall back.

[British media: Home working makes companies more serious about employee monitoring] Many companies use monitoring software to ensure employees work from home efficiently. A survey of more than 2,200 employees in the UK found that 60% believed they were being monitored in some form. To make matters worse, companies are reluctant to give up surveillance software even when things return to normal. According to statistics, since March 2020, the number of large and medium-sized US companies using monitoring software has doubled compared to before the epidemic, and up to 60% of companies use different types of monitoring software. Many employees' computers were unknowingly "planted" with surveillance software that took screenshots of relevant work records, and some even activated home computer cameras. Many people believe that surveillance has increased their stress and the crisis of trust between employees and their bosses.

[Pantheon Macroeconomics Economist: UK house prices may fall in the second half of the year] UK house prices are expected to fall by around 2% in the second half of this year due to the recent surge in mortgage rates, said a senior UK economist at Pension Macroeconomics. Some households may still be able to afford a home due to a strong labor market and additional savings accumulated during the pandemic. But even if home prices and average mortgage sizes remain stable, rising mortgage rates will be a burden for new borrowers. UK house prices are expected to rise by 2.5% by 2023, but that forecast is premised on the Bank of England stopping rate hikes sooner than the market expects.

[Fuel supply is limited, the Sri Lankan government has decided to provide fuel only to essential services from midnight on June 27 to July 10] On June 27, local time, a spokesman for the Sri Lankan cabinet said that the cabinet has decided to provide fuel from midnight on June 27 to July 10. Only essential services will be provided with fuel on 10th. Interprovincial buses are also likely to be suspended due to fuel restrictions, he added. He also said the government had taken measures to supply fuel without interruption from July 10.

[Sri Lanka Electricity Marketing Company Raises Electricity Prices Eightfold] Sri Lanka's largest state-owned power company, the Ceylon Electricity Authority, has raised electricity prices by more than 800% to customers who need it most. Sri Lanka is experiencing its worst economic crisis since independence in 1948. The country cannot buy enough fuel due to a shortage of foreign currency as the virus pandemic restricts the flow of tourists. The country is experiencing severe shortages of food and essentials, fuel and natural gas. Many parts of Sri Lanka were without power due to lack of foreign exchange to import fuel.

[Japan again calls for energy conservation, Tokyo power crisis eases] The Japanese government once again called on residents to save electricity, as more hot weather is expected this week. While Tokyo's power supply is not expected to be as tight as it was yesterday, the Japanese government extended its advice to Tokyo, calling on households and businesses to curb electricity usage, providing relief to utilities. While hotter weather later in the week is expected to add stress to Tokyo's power grid, Tokyo is unlikely to face blackouts as power generation is strong in the rest of the country.

[South Korea's edible oil prices rose due to rising international grain prices and exchange rate fluctuations] Affected by the rising international grain prices and exchange rate fluctuations, the prices of edible oils such as soybean oil also rose. According to the Korean food industry on the 27th, from July 1, the price of canola oil sold by some convenience stores will increase by 20.8%, and the price of pressed olive oil will increase by 17.7%. A relevant person from the company said that the company had to decide to increase the price of its products due to the increase in the price of raw materials. The price of cooking oil sold by South Korean Tumbler Foods has risen by 20%. An official of the company said that the price of 18-liter commercial edible oil had been raised last week. The price of commercial edible oil was particularly affected by international grain prices, and the price increase was the largest among major products. In addition, Tumbler Foods will also raise prices on some items such as mayonnaise and noodles from July 1.

Zhimeitong | Logistics Highlights

For more information, pay attention to the public number: Zhimeitong Research Institute

[The country's first sea-rail combined transport container terminal was officially opened] On the morning of June 28, the country's first sea-rail combined transport container terminal – Beibu Gulf Port Qinzhou Automated Container Terminal was officially opened. This is an important measure to promote the high-quality development of the new western land-sea passage and the Beibu Gulf international gateway port. The opening of the automated terminal will provide important support for the high-level co-construction of the new western land-sea channel, which will greatly enhance the core competitiveness of Beibu Gulf Port, accelerate the construction of the international gateway port and international hub port of the new western land-sea channel, and realize the Beibu Gulf Port in 2025. The development target of 10 million TEUs is of great significance.

[Maersk launches 2 new Asia-Europe routes] Recently, Maersk has added 2 new charter air cargo routes between Asia and Europe, aiming to further strengthen the air cargo capacity from southern China to the European market and promote trade between Asia and Europe. Provide more fast, flexible and convenient options for customers' supply chain. According to reports, the first route is from Hong Kong, China to Liege, Belgium. It is operated by Boeing 747 all-cargo aircraft and travels between South China and Europe at a fixed time every week. Through the unique advantages of Hong Kong as a free port, we provide customers with more stable transportation capacity and more efficient logistics services. The second route is the route from Shanghai, China to London, UK, with one flight per week, and the number of flights will be increased in the future according to market demand.

[2,000 USD/box, ONE will charge a new surcharge on the Asia-Europe route] Ocean Network Shipping (ONE) recently announced on its official website that it will charge a weight difference surcharge on the Asia-Europe route (westbound only) ( Weight Discrepancy Charge, referred to as WDS). The fee standard is 2,000 US dollars / box and will be implemented from July 1 (the date of booking receipt). ONE emphasizes that WDS will be charged if it is detected including but not limited to incorrect loading data, deviation from final bill of lading details and Verified Gross Mass (VGM) exceeding +/-/TEU. The company explained that this will help ensure the safety of personnel during the loading and unloading process. At the same time, it also guarantees the "commercial integrity" of ONE's agreements with all customers.

[Baltic dry bulk freight index fell to the lowest level in more than two months] The Baltic dry bulk freight index fell to the lowest level in more than two months on the 28th, as the freight index of all ship types fell. The Baltic Dry Index fell 91 points, or nearly 4%, to 2,204, its lowest level since April 20. The capesize index fell 180 points, or 7.7%, to 2,152, its lowest since May 3. Average daily earnings for capesize vessels fell by $1,487 to $17,849. The panamax index fell 86 points, or 3.2%, to 2,566, its lowest level in more than four months. Average daily earnings for panamax vessels fell $778 to $23,092. The Supramax index fell 23 points to 2,416.

Zhimeitong | E-commerce highlights

For more information, pay attention to the public number: Zhimeitong Research Institute

[eBay announcement: 0-1 day order processing time for certified docking sellers] eBay issued an announcement saying that on eBay US and UK stations, if your listings meet the requirements of "Top Rated Plus" , you will be able to enjoy a 10% transaction fee discount, and the item listing page will also display the "Super Excellent Rating Publishing" badge to gain more traffic and more exposure. Setting 0-1 day order processing time (US station) and 3-day delivery time (UK station) are important conditions for obtaining the "Super Excellent Rating Publishing" badge. Please see below for detailed requirements for "Super Excellent Rating Publishing". eBay data shows that most eBay-certified overseas warehouse transactions in the United States and the United Kingdom that ship from warehouses can meet this requirement:

As of June 1, 2022 in the United States, for the overseas warehouse transactions of American buyers, if the warehouse is shipped through eBay certification, the proportion of sellers uploading the logistics tracking number for the transaction within 1 working day is as high as 98%. ;

As of June 1, 2022 in the UK station, for overseas warehouse transactions of British buyers, if the warehouse is shipped through eBay certification, more than 90% of the transactions can be delivered within 3 working days.

Last Morning Post: Amazon announced that it will hold two Prime Days this year; the demand for luggage is rising, and export orders are scheduled until the end of the year | Cross-border E-commerce Daily

This article is edited and organized by Zhimeitong Research Institute. The pictures and information are from the Internet, and the copyright belongs to the original author. This article does not represent that this subscription number agrees with its views and is responsible for its authenticity. Unauthorized reproduction, adaptation or creation of mirror images is not allowed. If you need to reprint, please leave a message in the background to apply and obtain authorization. The content of this article is for general discussion only and does not constitute any commercial or legal advice or services. The trademarks and pictures used and quoted in this article, such as remarks, are from the Internet, and the copyright belongs to the original author and is not used for commercial purposes.