Zhimeitong | International Highlights

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[Amazon Sold Over 300 Million Items on Prime Day] During Prime Day 2022, Amazon Prime members purchased over 300 million items worldwide, making this year's Big Deal the largest Prime Day event in Amazon's history. And, more shopping means more savings — Prime members saved more than $1.7 billion during the sale, more than any previous Prime Day event.

[Bank of America cuts U.S. economic outlook, expects U.S. recession in the second half of the year] Bank of America lowered its forecast for the U.S. economic outlook, predicting that the U.S. economy will experience a mild recession in the second half of this year as inflationary shocks weigh on consumers and the economy. With inflation accelerating and the Federal Reserve leaning toward faster rate hikes, Bank of America revised its previous forecast that the U.S. would avoid a full-blown economic contraction. The bank now expects U.S. GDP to contract by 1.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of this year and grow by just 1% in 2023.

[Amazon makes concessions to EU hopes to end antitrust investigation by the end of the year] EU antitrust watchdog the European Commission said that Amazon has proposed not to use seller data for its own retail business, and made other concessions to end EU antitrust investigation. The European Commission is seeking feedback on Amazon's proposed concessions, and competitors and consumers have until September 1 to submit comments and suggestions. After that, the European Commission will decide whether to accept Amazon's proposal.

[Amazon Ring provided video to law enforcement without user consent 11 times] Amazon said that so far this year, the company's video doorbell service Ring has provided video to law enforcement without user consent 11 times. Amazon said the company provided the videos to law enforcement in an emergency.

Amazon also said 2,161 law enforcement agencies use its Neighbors Public Safety Service, which allows police and other law enforcement officials to request video footage of Ring users.

01. North America

[The Fed raises interest rates by 100 basis points? Anything is possible in the face of inflation] Freshly released hot inflation data has Fed officials likely to discuss the issue of raising interest rates by 100 basis points later this month. Investors increased their bets for a 100 basis point rate hike at the July meeting, which, if true, would be the largest in the Fed's recent history. "I think they have time, if they want to, to revise the market expectations to 100 basis points," said JPMorgan chief U.S. economist. for good reason". "If you do raise rates by 100 basis points in July and 75 basis points in September, I think the outlook for economic growth later in the year may deteriorate," he said. "Right now, I tend to think that the main effect of the data is likely to prompt the Fed to to raise interest rates further ahead.”

[U.S. and Japanese bond real yield gap narrows or helps curb yen decline] After the release of inflation data, the U.S. and Japanese 5-year bond yield spread has narrowed from its mid-June high, but the move has not yet This is reflected in the dollar-yen exchange rate, which has been a key driver of yen weakness. "With the U.S. yield curve inverting on fears of an economic pullback, a slight narrowing of real yield spreads could be a catalyst for a near-term correction in dollar-yen," said Jun Kato, chief market analyst at Shinjin Asset Management. "But dollar strength is not going to change for now. "

[Twitter suffers global outage] Beginning around 8:10 a.m. ET, Twitter users around the world have been reporting broken connections or outages. Widespread outages are preventing users from logging in or accessing parts of Twitter's service. It's unclear which regions users are most affected by, but the service is apparently down.

[Twitter (Twitter) will release its second quarter 2022 financial report on July 22] On the morning of July 14, Beijing time, Twitter (Twitter) announced today that it will announce that it will release its financial results for the second quarter of 2022 on July 22 before the opening of the U.S. stock market (Eastern U.S.). At 8:00 a.m. time, Beijing time at 8:00 p.m. on July 22) to release the second quarter 2022 financial report.

[Apple's camera supply chain will enter a two-year high-speed growth cycle due to the use of a high-unit price periscope design for the iPhone 15] A well-known Apple industry chain analyst issued a document saying that the Apple camera supply chain will enter a continuous period due to the use of a high-unit price periscope design for the iPhone 15. Two-year high-speed growth cycle.

[It is reported that the Windows 12 system will come out in 2024, with 4 major updates every year] Microsoft once said that Windows 10 (hereinafter referred to as Win10) is the last generation of Windows system, but after the launch of Win11 last year, this promise is a joke, and Win11 is naturally not the last. The latest news is that Microsoft will launch the Win12 system in 2024, and the annual update will also become 4 feature upgrades.

[Google Cloud Announces Adoption of ARM Chips: Pressure on Intel and AMD] Alphabet's Google Cloud division announced on July 13, local time, that they will start adopting chips based on ARM technology, becoming another large technology company to join this transformation wave. This puts more pressure on Intel and AMD. Google said the company's new service will be based on Ampere Computing's Altra chips. Ampere Computing also sells chips to companies such as Microsoft and Oracle.

[It is reported that Intel will raise prices of various chips this fall to deal with rising costs] Intel has notified customers that it will raise prices of most microprocessor and peripheral chip products later this year, mainly because of rising costs. Intel plans to raise prices this fall on flagship products such as servers and PC processors, as well as on a range of other products including Wi-Fi and other connectivity chips, three industry executives said.

[Panasonic spends 4 billion US dollars to build a new battery factory, which is expected to become the largest electric vehicle battery factory in the United States] The governor of Kansas confirmed the news that Panasonic will build a new battery factory in the state, which is expected to invest 4 billion US dollars (about 26.897 billion yuan) , is expected to add 4,000 jobs.

[The sharp interest rate hike makes economists question the optimistic expectations of the Bank of Canada governor] The Bank of Canada raised interest rates yesterday by the largest since 1998, but this has not weakened the optimism of the Bank of Canada governor on Canada's economic outlook, he believes A soft landing of the economy can be achieved while fighting inflation. Economists see this as challenging. Because this is achieved on the premise that the tightening cycle will be short-lived, interest rates will not enter restrictive territory, high inflation and a weak housing market will not seriously affect consumer spending. But BMO's rate strategist said the goal of a soft landing for Canada's economy may not be achieved, given the Bank of Canada's extremely aggressive move to raise interest rates and inflation at multi-decade highs.

02. EU region

【Double swords unsheathed! The EU's heavy digital bill is close to landing, how will the tech giants under the attack of many parties deal with themselves? ] On July 12-13, Amazon will hold a Prime Day membership day event. JPMorgan forecasts that this will generate $3.8 billion in incremental revenue for Amazon, up 7% from a year ago.

Just a few days ago, Amazon's Prime membership system was "targeted" by European antitrust authorities. On July 6, local time, the British antitrust regulator "Competition and Markets Authority" (CMA) announced that it is investigating Amazon's alleged anti-competitive behavior, which involves "how Amazon sets the eligibility criteria for sales under the Prime label" one. Next, compliance pressure on Amazon is not only from the CMA, but also from the European Union. On July 5th, local time, the EU’s two blockbuster digital bills, the Digital Services Act (DSA) and the Digital Markets Act (DMA), were passed with overwhelming votes and are close to taking effect.

[The euro plummeted and the search volume of European flights in Europe soared] The recent decline in the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar has led to the fire of the European travel market. Searches for flights to popular European destinations saw double-digit increases from the previous week, with searches to Paris, France and Frankfurt, Germany both up 25%.

[Europe has issued extreme heat wave warnings and temperatures are expected to exceed 40 degrees Celsius in parts of Germany and France] According to the latest data from the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), this year's wildfire season started earlier than in previous years. 250,000 hectares of land were burned, about three times the average for the same period in 2008-2020. Destroyed land in France and Spain now accounts for around 40 percent of the EU's destroyed land in the first six months of this year. At the beginning of July, the cumulative area of ​​forest burned in both countries was four times the average for the same period of 2008-2020. Based on historical data, more fires will occur in the coming weeks, as hot weather and drought typically cause wildfires to peak in late July/early August.

[EU downgrades economic growth outlook for next year, expects price shock to last longer] The European economy now faces the prospect of a "significant slowdown" compared with two months ago, while the cost of living shock is more severe and prolonged. The European Commission lowered its 2023 economic growth forecast to 1.4% from 2.3%. The committee also forecasts that inflation peaking will be delayed and last longer. "Moscow's actions are disrupting energy and food supplies, driving up prices and undermining confidence," EU economic commissioner Gentiloni said. "Considering the course of the war and the unknown reliability of gas supplies, this forecast is subject to a high degree of uncertainty and downside risks."

[EU will take emergency measures to deal with gas supply problems] In response to the problem of Russia's natural gas supply, the EU is taking a series of emergency measures to prepare for the possible sudden interruption of natural gas supply in Russia to slow the impact. The article quoted a related draft document from the European Union as saying, "The gas situation in the European Union is at a critical juncture, and everyone should conserve gas." It is reported that the gas-saving measures listed in the draft document for EU member states include: fuel switching in industrial production, market-based incentives to reduce gas consumption, and promotion of heating and cooling reduction campaigns. The draft document is expected to be implemented on the 20th of this month.

[German gas prices may triple, government officials urge people to start saving money for high bills] The head of Germany’s energy regulator, the Federal Network Agency, warned that from 2023, natural gas consumers will face at least three times the price increase. This means that customers who currently pay €1,500 a year for heating may have to pay €4,500 or more in the future, which is "absolutely realistic". He called on the public to prepare in advance for this, "add some savings every month, and maintain and optimize heating equipment", because optimizing heating facilities can achieve good energy savings, and about half of Germany's current boilers are not well received. maintain.

[France has confirmed a total of 912 cases of monkeypox, and the health department has called for accelerated vaccination] France has confirmed a total of 912 cases of monkeypox. Since the first case of monkeypox was detected in France in early May this year, a total of 5 women in France have been diagnosed with monkeypox; most of the confirmed cases are adult males, aged between 19 and 84; three-quarters of the confirmed cases are The patient claimed to have had at least two sexual partners in the 3 weeks prior to the onset of monkeypox symptoms. The French Ministry of Health on the same day called for accelerated vaccination to effectively curb the spread of monkeypox. Vaccination will be extended to monkeypox-susceptible groups, including homosexuals, multi-partner transgender people, and sex workers.

[French big cities are almost unavoidable from power outages in 2022 and 2023] In 2022 and 2023, almost all major French cities cannot escape the fate of power outages. Governments across Europe are bracing for power outages, and energy executives and political leaders hope the winter won't be too cold, sources said.

[Italian anti-monopoly agency investigates Google for restricting data sharing] On July 14, local time, the Italian competition and market authority, the Italian anti-monopoly agency, announced that it had begun to investigate Google for abusing its dominant market position to restrict data interconnection between platforms. investigation.

The Competition and Markets Authority believes that Google has a dominant position in multiple markets, access to large amounts of personal data through services such as Google Mail, Maps, Android and other services, with a turnover of $257.6 billion in 2021. Google's abuse of its market dominance violates Article 102 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, and Article 20 of the EU's General Data Protection Regulation, preventing consumers from benefiting from the use of their platform's data and restricting other Italian operators How personal data is used.

[Italian President Mattarella refused to accept Prime Minister Draghi's resignation] At about 19:00 on July 14 local time, Italian Prime Minister Draghi arrived at the presidential palace to submit his resignation to President Mattarella, but President Mattarella refused to accept , and demanded a parliamentary vote to confirm whether the government still had a majority.

03. Other regions

[British train drivers union announces strike on the 30th] The British train drivers union announced that the train drivers of eight British railway companies will go on strike on July 30 because of a pay dispute. The day before, another UK transport trade union, RMT, announced that it would stage a similar strike by rail workers earlier in the same week on July 27.

[The results of the first round of the election of the new leader of the British Conservative Party are released: former Finance Minister Sunak temporarily won the highest vote] The British ruling Conservative Party held the first round of the election of the new leader on the 13th, and former Finance Minister Rishi Sunak won the first round of the election. Up to 88 votes. Former foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt and newly appointed finance minister Nadhim Zahawi failed to secure the 30-vote threshold in the first round of elections, with Hunt then announcing his support for Sunak.

[Hungary enters a state of energy emergency and plans to ban energy exports] On the 13th local time, the Hungarian government announced an energy emergency. The main measures include banning energy exports, canceling energy price ceilings for households consuming above-average levels, and planning to increase domestic natural gas production, etc. . The package of measures will come into effect in August to ensure energy supply in winter.

[New Zealand’s new confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia exceeded 10,000 for several consecutive days] On July 14, local time, the New Zealand health department announced that in the past 24 hours, New Zealand had 11,382 new confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia. Since July, New Zealand has ushered in a new round of new crown virus infection peaks. There have been more than 10,000 new confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia for several consecutive days. The new subtype BA.5 of Omicron is becoming the most important infection strain in New Zealand. . New Zealand health officials said the government will increase the supply of free masks and new crown self-test kits in the future.

Zhimeitong | Logistics Highlights

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[Baltic dry bulk index edged up on higher capesize rates] The Baltic dry bulk index edged up on Thursday as capesize rates rose to a three-week high. The Baltic Dry Index rose 8 points, or 0.4%, to 2010. The capesize index rose 123 points, or 5.3%, to 2,457, its highest level since June 21. Average daily earnings for capesize vessels rose $1,017 to $20,375. The panamax index fell for an 18th straight session, sliding 88 points, or 4.4%, to 1,920, its lowest level since Feb. 7. Average daily earnings for panamax vessels fell $795 to $17,280. The Supramax index fell 27 points to a five-month low of 2,050, its 16th straight session of losses.

Zhimeitong | Domestic Highlights

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[China’s foreign exchange market will maintain stable operation with increasing resilience] Recently, the adjustment of foreign RMB bond positions has attracted market attention. Experts said that foreign investment's adjustment of RMB bond positions has limited impact on my country's bond market, foreign exchange market, and stock market, and the RMB exchange rate has become more flexible, playing the role of a "shock absorber" to absorb internal and external shocks. Looking ahead, my country's foreign exchange market is expected to remain stable, its resilience will gradually increase, and cross-border capital flows will show an overall balance.

[In the second half of the year, we will focus on four aspects to achieve foreign trade "maintain stability and improve quality"] At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Commerce held today, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce said that in the first half of the year, China's foreign trade has overcome the adverse effects of various domestic and foreign factors , showing strong development resilience. In the second half of the year, the development of my country's foreign trade will also face a series of uncertain and unstable factors. The Ministry of Commerce will work with all localities and relevant departments to focus on four aspects to promote the realization of the goal of "maintaining stability and improving quality". Including reducing costs and increasing efficiency, stabilizing the main body of the foreign trade market; strengthening guarantees, stabilizing the production and circulation of foreign trade; grabbing orders to help enterprises develop markets; promoting innovation and cultivating new growth points of foreign trade.

[China's shipbuilding international market share in the first half of the year maintained the world's leading market share] From January to June 2022, China's shipbuilding completion volume, new orders and hand-held orders accounted for 45.2%, 50.8% and 47.8% of the world's total in terms of deadweight tons, respectively. , accounting for 42.0%, 47.7% and 41.5% respectively in terms of revised gross tonnage, ranking first in the world in terms of international market share.

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