From October 11th to 12th, Amazon's first Prime Early Access Sale was held in 15 countries including the United States and the United Kingdom.

For this autumn sale, which is defined as "Prime Day 2.0", sellers are eager to try it, and even organize employees to visit the store overnight. Judging from the current feedback, orders from some sellers have increased, but the majority of orders are flat or not as good as usual. At the same time, due to the discount setting requirements, although sales of some products have increased, their profits have decreased year-on-year, and advertising costs have soared.

Considering the profit margins and subsequent reports of Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday, many sellers did not put forth much activity and only tested the waters. From the actual sales situation, sellers believe that the effect of this autumn promotion's debut is far from the summer promotion.

Amazon's fall sale is cold

Amazon previously said that in order to give Prime members an opportunity to enjoy early holiday shopping season great deals and open up new growth opportunities for sellers, the new sale will run for 48 hours.

A group of sellers seized this opportunity decisively. An operator said that the second day after the launch of the new product, there was a big promotion, and it seemed that it could break 100 orders steadily . Another seller won all the games, "Our products that did not participate in the event are estimated to have doubled. The number of orders that participated in the event has been three times that of yesterday. It is estimated that the sales volume of participating in the event this year is six times that of yesterday."

But the positive feedback was very limited, and more sellers were disappointed, and once suspected that Amazon only notified sellers of the event, but forgot to tell buyers.

An operator revealed that the company asked to visit the store overnight during the last two days of membership days. Unfortunately, there were few orders, and they had to continue to work the next day. The peers were very puzzled when they heard it, "What can I do if I stay up late, can I click F5?"

Indeed, many sellers are in disbelief when they see sales figures. After all, the big promotion overdrafted the order volume before the event. Many people also made a combination of promotion and spike. As a result, the order volume was basically the same as usual, and the sales even decreased. Counting advertising fees and event costs, it is still a loss. It is naturally difficult to make a profit.

A small seller revealed that there are about 80 orders on the summer membership day , but on the first day of the big promotion, the order volume is even lower than usual. The advertising spending exceeded the budget ACOS, and because of the discounts, the same unit sales were much less. "Advertising fees have soared, prices are lower than usual, and orders have not risen much, just giving benefits." Someone concluded.

Another seller said that the prices of some of his products are too low on weekdays, and they can no longer match the minimum 20% discount activity submission requirements, so he missed the event. To his surprise, the order performance of the products reported for the autumn promotion is actually better than usual. Difference. On July Membership Day, its orders doubled.

No matter the traffic or the single volume, people can't feel the atmosphere of the big promotion. The only thing that has a promotion atmosphere is the surge in advertising fees. Sellers can actually feel that the conversion rate of advertisements is plummeting. The results of this promotion make them miss the Summer Membership Day Sale so much:

"The average price is much lower than that of Prime in the summer, and the single volume is not half of what it was then."

"It's only half the summer, and I'm starting to doubt myself."

"It's probably increased by 1/3, and it's not as powerful as summer."

"It's only a fifth of the summer, and ad conversions are mediocre."

It is not surprising that the promotion status of Prime Day is similar to Double 11, and the popularity and buyer impression points are not comparable to a new event. During Amazon Prime Day 2022, Prime members purchased more than 300 million items worldwide, and more than 100,000 items were purchased every minute.

In addition, in big promotions such as membership days, there are often episodes where the discounts are set incorrectly, and this time is no exception. In the past two days, the following screenshot has been widely circulated in the industry.

This "blood loss" package surprised the sellers. Some people admire that such a setup can actually be successful, which can be said to have achieved the ultimate in charity; but more colleagues are worried, thinking that the seller in question intended to offer a "20%" discount but made a mistake. The fall promotion was the first to appear, and the event label was the words "Prime Early Access" on a blue background. During this event, there were not a few promotional products with both blue and green labels on Amazon, which made people sweat.

In addition to the wrong settings, or even out of the consideration of clearing goods and pushing rankings, the discount has been directly achieved by 90% and above, which is unmatched.

Some sellers ridiculed that this autumn promotion, everyone made a collective price reduction under the premise of the same traffic. Therefore, those who did not participate in the event will have a price disadvantage. For example, a seller's orders have plummeted, because the top ranking sellers are all sellers who do events or have 5%-15% coupons.

On the whole, the atmosphere of this promotion is weak, and the common launching ceremonies and listings during Prime Day rarely appear. In addition to the decline in consumers' purchasing power, new gimmick promotions, the lack of peak season, and insufficient publicity are also factors for its poor performance. Even some sellers do not know the date and label of the event. It can be seen that this hasty promotion has not done enough homework.

Nonetheless, some categories did see growth. Data from market research agency Numerator shows that the average order size in the first 16 hours of the sale is $44.37, the top-selling items are Amazon gift cards, Echo Dots and Melissa & Doug brand toys, and the categories consumers buy the most are household essentials, Health and Beauty, Footwear.

Autumn promotion may affect the price of Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday

It is predicted that more than 30% of American consumers plan to shop on Amazon in the fall, the average American household will spend more than $200, and consumers will buy candy and decorations for Halloween. Before the start of the big promotion, many sellers also expressed high hopes for it, and did not hesitate to give sales discounts.

However, now sellers still have a layer of concern, worrying that the price of the autumn promotion will affect the price of the subsequent Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday. This worry is justified.

In the previous fall promotion report, Amazon required Prime targeted coupons to be at least 20% off the current price; Prime exclusive discounts should be within the range of 20% to 20% off the current price, equal to or lower than the lowest price in the past 30 days, and The Prime exclusive discount price must be 5% lower than the reference price. The overall discount is not small.

Participating in the seckill of Prime members' early enjoyment day may affect the price of Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday. Amazon mentioned that the price requirements for Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday on some sites in the United States and Japan are lower than the lowest price this year , which includes both the usual seckill price and the big promotion seckill price.

This year's Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday will be held on November 25th and November 28th respectively. The latest Black Friday entry time for the US station is November 2nd, and the latest time for the European station to enter the warehouse is November 4th. The seller has stocked up in advance to ensure that the shipment can be delivered to the Amazon warehouse by the specified date.

In terms of promotions, Amazon reminds sellers not to modify the price information of promotional ASINs at will before and during the promotion; it is recommended to use only one promotional tool for the same ASIN at the same time to avoid overlapping discounts and affecting sales profits. If the profit is sufficient and the seller wants to participate in various promotions, be careful not to superimpose the Prime exclusive discount, otherwise it will trigger a suppression.

After the fall promotion, sellers are looking forward to Black Friday Cyber ​​Monday. After all, the appeal of traditional festivals is incomparable. In 2021, Amazon’s Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday broke records, with categories such as home furnishing, toys and apparel selling hot. Shanxi Xinhe Industry Co., Ltd., which specializes in yoga mats, dumbbells and other sports products, said that sales of its main products during Black Friday reached eight times the usual level. At that time, there were also sellers whose sales were not satisfactory. Due to the poor shipping timeliness and serious port congestion, some sellers' goods were still floating at sea at the beginning of Black Friday, resulting in all the main products out of stock. Electronic products, sporting goods, clothing, and baby products have always been among the top online out-of-stock items. Holiday decorations, alcohol, etc. have also become important categories that are out of stock during American holidays.

However, this year's shipping time has been greatly accelerated, and the goods can be put on the shelves on time. The performance of Black Friday is worth looking forward to.

Walmart and Target also entered the game, and October became an unprecedented month of promotion

Amazon's two-day fall sale spurred earlier holiday sales. In a bid to grab more market share, Walmart, Target, Macy's and other rivals have also begun to join the ranks of early price cuts to lure shoppers on tight holiday budgets. This October is an unprecedented big promotion month!

Amazon 's October fall sale will feature great deals on Amazon devices like Kindle, Echo and Fire TV, as well as its own-brand apparel, similar to July's Prime Day. In addition to Amazon's own brands, other deals include 35% off Sony and Bose headphones, some laptops from Dell and HP; 15% off Peloton bikes, and more.

Unlike the July Prime Day sale, there will be more gift discounts this month, including products from brands like Hasbro, Lego, Barbie and Sony. Some Christmas products are also offering 60% off in the fall sale.

However, research has shown that Amazon's fall sales aren't as attractive as they appear, with some products often raising prices before discounting them. For example, a vacuum cleaner that was originally priced at $250 was raised to $300 before the sale, and the $300 on the day of the sale was slashed to show that the discounted price was $275. In the end, consumers think that they have enjoyed a discount, which is not the case.

Regardless of the sale price, Amazon is effectively targeting shoppers who want to place an order in November by hosting this massive fall sale.

But Amazon's rivals aren't sitting still, with retailers including Walmart and Target launching their own promotions this month.

Walmart : "Rollbacks and More" from October 10-13, a sale that starts before Amazon's sale and ends after the sale, with discounts on some gifts, electronics, homewares, toys and clothing, and more Activity.

Target: “Deal Days” kicked off Oct. 6 with sales on categories including furniture, electronics, beauty, apparel, toys and sporting goods. Consumers can also enjoy Walmart's Price Match Guarantee, which means that purchases made between Oct. 6 and Dec. 24 qualify for a price adjustment if the price drops before Christmas Eve.

Macy's: The "Fab Fall" sale, running through October 10, offers loyalty members up to 60% savings, plus additional cash rewards.

Kohl's and Best Buy: The 48-hour sale runs on the same day as Amazon's. 20% off items already on sale at Kohl's.

"Retailers have been reaching consumers earlier this year, and the thinking is that the early bird catches the worm," said Carol Spieckerman, president of consultancy Spieckerman Retail.

The early start of the holiday shopping season is no surprise. Major retailers such as Target and Walmart have been offering deep discounts for months to clear excess inventory that has built up as consumers cut spending.

Retailers are pushing their promotions forward in hopes of enticing shoppers to place orders ahead of Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday, as consumers are more concerned about rising prices amid inflation.

In fact, a recent report from market research firm Numerator shows that many consumers have already started shopping for holiday gifts, with nearly a third of them shopping during this fall sale.

Another report from the National Retail Federation found that about 44% of shoppers believe it's better to buy gifts now because they may be more expensive by the end of the year. Obviously, concerns that prices will continue to rise have spurred more people to buy in advance.

Joseph Feldman, an analyst at Telsey Advisory Group, said: "Mid- and upper-income consumers are more likely to buy at the time of the autumn big sale, to seize the promotion and enjoy products earlier, but for consumers with lower incomes. , they may delay consumption and buy more products that are actually needed.”

U.S. consumers are expected to slow holiday spending this year, spurred by early discounting activity and inflation.

U.S. holiday online sales rose 2.5%, the slowest since 2015

Online sales in the U.S. holiday season are expected to reach $209.7 billion this year, up just 2.5 percent, according to Adobe Analytics , the slowest pace of growth since 2015.

Adobe's online shopping forecast for the 2022 holiday season covers the period from November 1 to December 31, 2022. It expects more shoppers to shop early this year as Amazon's big fall sales run ahead of the start of the holiday season.

This summer's Prime Day event boosted online sales across the retail industry, with online spending reaching $73.7 billion in July, up 20.9% year-over-year. The big fall promotion will also attract some consumers to shop early, which will affect the performance of the holiday season.

Notably, the holiday season will also be affected by an uncertain economic environment this year, as shoppers grapple with higher prices and borrowing costs for food, gas, housing and more.

In this year's holiday season sales, Cyber ​​Monday is expected to remain the biggest shopping day of the season and the year, with a record $11.2 billion in sales, up 5.1% year over year. In contrast, online sales on Black Friday are expected to grow just 1% year over year to $9 billion; Thanksgiving sales will drop to $5.1 billion, down 1% year over year.

As e-commerce shopping becomes a more common activity, and e-commerce platforms offer discounts almost throughout the shopping season, the major shopping promotion days such as Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday will become less and less important.

Adobe expects Cyber ​​Week (Thanksgiving to Cyber ​​Monday) to generate $34.8 billion in total sales, up 2.8% year over year. That's 16.3% for the entire quarter, down from 16.6% in 2021.

Patrick Brown, Adobe's vice president of marketing, said: "This year's holiday season looks different, with early discounts in October driving spending around Cyber ​​Week. Although we expect single-digit growth in online spending this quarter However, consumers’ online spending from January to August this year has exceeded $590 billion, a growth rate of 8.9%, which also highlights the elasticity of e-commerce demand.”

During this holiday season, Adobe expects electronics, apparel and groceries to be the top three categories, contributing $103.8 billion in sales in the quarter, or nearly half of the $209.7 billion. These three king fried categories have become the main drivers of online revenue growth.

Specifically, the growth of the three popular categories is as follows:

Electronics: Will generate $49.8 billion in online sales, up 2.9% year over year. Electronic products are highly competitive and discounted during the holiday season, resulting in larger sales. Deep discounts on these types of products will attract enough shoppers, but also affect sellers' profits.

Apparel: Shoppers are expected to spend $ 40.7 billion on apparel online this season. As the anxiety related to the epidemic subsides, more consumers are starting to think about dressing themselves up, but as people will spend more time at home, some comfortable home clothes may have a good sale.

Groceries: This category has seen an online boom in 2020. This quarter, online groceries will generate $13.3 billion in sales as consumers plan for holiday meals, up 10.5% year over year.

In addition, this year's holiday season discounts will also hit an all-time high of 32%. Because major retailers have to consider clearing inventory and dealing with the current situation of weak consumption.

In terms of specific categories, discounts on computers, electronics and toys will hit record highs, with computer discounts expected to be as high as 32%, up from 10% last year; electronics discounts will reach 27%, up from 8% last year; toys The discount will be 22%, up from 19% last year.

Other products with bigger discounts include TVs at 19%, clothing at 19%, appliances at 18%, sporting goods at 17% and furniture and bedding at 11%.

The biggest discounts of the holiday season are expected to come between Thanksgiving and Cyber ​​Monday. Thanksgiving ( November 24) will be the best day to buy electronics; Black Friday (November 25) will have the best deals on TVs; Black Friday (November 26) will have the biggest toys Discounts; Clothing and sporting goods will likely have the biggest discounts on Sunday (November 27); appliances will have the biggest discounts on December 1.

While the best deals will be available between Thanksgiving and Cyber ​​Monday, the earliest discounts will come in the second week of October, with discounts expected to be as high as 15%. Discounts are up to 20% in the weeks following Cyber ​​Monday. These intensive promotions will provide consumers with greater flexibility in shopping and stimulate more consumption.

However, according to forecasts, the overall growth of online sales during the holiday season this year is not optimistic, because "the landlord's family has no surplus food."